President Xi: population decline could benefit China's future development

Qiushi, an important affiliated publication of the Chinese Communist Party, published an article by President Xi Jinping on the decline of the country's population. The article is part of Xi's speech on May 5, 2023, at the first meeting of the 20th CCP Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission, marking its first release.

In the article, Xi emphasized that the decision to implement family planning was correct, as it effectively curbed excessive population growth and alleviated related pressures, driving China's development.

Xi called for a dialectical view of the impact of negative population growth. The decrease in population has both advantages and disadvantages for economic and social development and should not be viewed one-sidedly. Some issues require a long-term perspective, and it is premature to draw conclusions. For instance, population decline may bring certain challenges, such as reduced labor supply and weaker momentum for consumption and investment. At the same time, it also has positive effects, such as reducing pressure on resources and the environment and driving economic development to shift from extensive expansion to intensive growth.

Xi also highlighted that population security is the baseline requirement for high-quality population development. The rise and fall of major powers are often profoundly affected by population conditions; thus, we must incorporate population security into the overall national security framework for planning.

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Supporting Chinese-Style Modernization with High-Quality Population Development

Promoting high-quality population development is a new concept and requirement that I have proposed. It is timely and important for the Central Financial and Economic Commission to study this topic.

(I) Our Modernization Faces a New Population Situation

For a long time, China has been the most populous country in the world. Population development is a major issue concerning the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation. Currently, as we embark on a new journey to build a modern socialist country in all respects, China's population development has also entered a new phase. Comprehensive analysis shows that with economic and social development and changes in the age structure of the population, our country has generally shifted from a stage of population growth to one of population reduction. Population development exhibits clear trending characteristics such as low birth rates, aging, and regional population increases and decreases. Advancing Chinese-style modernization faces new population environments and conditions.

We must comprehensively understand and correctly view the new situation of our country's population development.

First, we must fully affirm the correctness and effectiveness of the family planning policy. A huge population size is our basic national condition. We implemented family planning as a major decision based on the actual national conditions at a specific historical stage, effectively controlling excessively rapid population growth and the pressures it brought, thereby strongly supporting the cause of reform, opening up, and socialist modernization. Since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, in response to new changes in population growth and structure, the Party Central Committee has made scientific judgments and timely adjusted and optimized fertility policies. The overall effect has been good, and this must be fully affirmed.

Second, we must dialectically view the impact of negative population growth. Our country has completed in decades the industrialization process that took developed countries hundreds of years, resulting in a rapid population transition and early population reduction. Overall, this aligns with the general patterns of global modernization development. Population reduction can bring some adverse effects on development, such as a decreased labor force and weakened momentum in consumption and investment. At the same time, it also has positive effects, such as reducing pressure on resources and the environment and compelling economic development to shift from extensive expansion to intensive growth. Overall, population reduction has both advantages and disadvantages for economic and social development. We cannot look at only one side; some issues need a long-term perspective, and we should not rush to conclusions. We must oppose both "population determinism" and "population irrelevance theory," and work to maximize benefits while minimizing drawbacks.

Third, we must correctly understand the issue of the demographic dividend. It should be noted that the demographic dividend is related not only to population quantity and structure but also to population quality, economic policies, and supporting measures. Our current population and labor force are sufficiently large, and the current extent of population reduction is limited. The overall educational level of the population continues to rise, and the comprehensive demographic dividend still has significant advantages. At the same time, we must recognize that our country's low birth rates and aging are occurring before modernization is completed, which will bring new difficulties and challenges that we must actively address.

(II) Basic Ideas and Major Principles for Population Work in the New Era

To do a good job in population work in the new era, we must adhere to Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era as our guide, fully implement the spirit of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, and fully, accurately, and comprehensively implement the new development concept. Focusing on the strategic arrangements for building a strong country and national rejuvenation, we should improve the population development strategy in the new era, recognize, adapt to, and lead the new normal of population development, focus on improving the overall quality of the population, strive to maintain an appropriate fertility level and population size, and accelerate the formation of modern human resources that are high in quality, sufficient in quantity, optimized in structure, and reasonably distributed. High-quality population development will support Chinese-style modernization. We must grasp the following principles.

First, adhere to promoting high-quality economic and social development through high-quality population development. Our country has entered a critical period of promoting high-quality development. We must shift population work from primarily regulating quantity to improving quality, stabilizing total numbers, optimizing structure, and facilitating smooth flow. By fostering high-quality population development, we can build a high-caliber human resource base, accelerate the formation of a new development pattern, and focus on promoting high-quality development.

Second, adhere to a systematic approach in planning population issues. We should establish a "big population view," proceed from the overall situation of Chinese-style modernization, and deeply analyze the complex impacts of population changes on economic and social development. When formulating economic and social policies, fully consider population change factors, and promote the integration of population policies with fiscal, monetary, employment, industrial, investment, consumption, ecological, and regional policies to achieve systemic effects. Population security is the baseline requirement for high-quality population development. The rise and fall of major powers are often profoundly affected by population conditions; thus, we must incorporate population security into the overall national security framework for planning.

Third, adhere to promoting high-quality population development through reform and innovation. In the past, population work was mainly focused on "management." In the future, as the scope of work becomes broader and more detailed, we must pay greater attention to methods of "guidance" and "incentives," shifting from relying mainly on governmental efforts to a model of government and society co-governance. We should deepen reforms in key areas, accelerate the formation of ideas, policies, regulations, and institutional mechanisms conducive to high-quality population development, and establish and improve a scientific public policy system for population and related fields. This will allow people to gain more from participating in and supporting high-quality population development. At the same time, we must avoid "quick fixes" and hastily implementing measures that may cause controversy.

Fourth, adhere to promoting the all-round development of people and common prosperity for all. To do a good job in population work in the new era, we must meet the people's expectations for a better life, uphold the principal position of the people, and closely integrate high-quality population development with a high-quality life for the people. We should combine "investing in things" with "investing in people," do our best within our capacity, and establish and improve a population service system covering all people and the entire life cycle. Consider marriage, childbirth, upbringing, education, employment, healthcare, housing, and elderly care as a whole to effectively promote the all-round development of people and common prosperity for all.

(III) Key Tasks to Support Chinese-Style Modernization with High-Quality Population Development

First, deepen reform and innovation in education and healthcare to comprehensively improve the overall quality of the population.

We must comprehensively enhance the scientific and cultural quality of the population. View the building of an educationally strong country as a strategic project for high-quality population development, adapt to global trends in scientific and technological revolutions and industrial transformations, and plan education, science and technology, and talent cultivation as a whole to improve education quality. Increase the level of education popularization and raise the average years of schooling among the labor force. Optimize higher education levels and types, academic disciplines, professional structures, and talent cultivation structures, and accelerate the construction of a modern vocational education system with Chinese characteristics. Strengthen digital empowerment and improve mechanisms for promoting lifelong learning for all.

We must comprehensively improve the health quality of the population. Effectively enhance the quality of newborns and promote the healthy growth of children. Strengthen health management for major chronic diseases and increase healthy life expectancy. Widely carry out nationwide fitness activities and strengthen youth physical education and mental health work.

We must comprehensively elevate the ideological and moral quality of the population. Use socialist core values to shape souls and educate people, strengthen the construction of integrity, promote the spirit of labor and struggle, and improve the moral standards and civility of the entire population.

Second, establish and improve a fertility support policy system to promote long-term balanced population development.

We must vigorously develop a universal childcare service system. Improve childcare support policies and standard systems, allocate resources for childcare services for children aged 0–6 in an integrated manner, and increase financial support through multiple channels. State finances should provide more support for related public services.

We must significantly reduce the burden of childbirth, upbringing, and education on families. Improve the maternity insurance system and expand coverage. Fully implement maternity leave policies and establish a reasonable cost-sharing mechanism among the government, employers, and families. Enhance support policies in housing, education, employment, and other areas.

We must promote the construction of a fertility-friendly society. Value family, family education, and family traditions; build a new culture of marriage and childbirth; advance marriage customs reform; and eliminate outdated practices such as exorbitant bride prices.

Third, strengthen human resource development and utilization to increase the effective supply of the labor force.

We must prudently and orderly implement the policy of delaying the statutory retirement age. Stabilize labor force participation rates, improve the efficiency of human resource utilization, and promote high-quality, full employment. Support young people in entrepreneurship and employment. Strengthen the protection of labor rights and interests for those in flexible employment and new forms of employment. Safeguard women's reproductive rights and interests, and increase employment opportunities for women. Continue to advance the urbanization of the agricultural population, raising the urbanization rate of both permanent residents and registered populations.

Fourth, implement the national strategy of actively responding to population aging to strive for the elderly to have care, opportunities, and happiness.

We must promote the construction of a basic elderly care service system. Improve the basic elderly care service catalog system, and establish an elderly care service system that coordinates home, community, and institutions, integrating medical care with health and elderly care.

We must vigorously develop the "silver economy." Support the elderly care industry to develop in scale, standardization, clustering, and branding, and cultivate high-tech products and high-quality service models.

We must enhance the sustainability of the social insurance system. Accelerate the development of a multi-level, multi-pillar pension insurance system, strengthen the second and third pillars of pension insurance, and improve the financing and benefit adjustment mechanisms of basic medical insurance.

Fifth, better coordinate the relationship between population and the economy, society, resources, and the environment to maintain population security.

We must align with new population transition trends to build a modern industrial system. Use consumption structure upgrades to lead industrial transformation and upgrading, and consider the impacts of population peaks and distribution changes in infrastructure layout.

We must optimize regional economic layouts and territorial spatial systems. Improve mechanisms that link staffing, land supply, fiscal transfers, public services, and other factors with population increases and decreases, supporting the reasonable and orderly flow of population and labor forces.

We must seize new opportunities presented by population reduction to strengthen ecological protection and restoration, promoting recuperation and rejuvenation. Optimize population structure and distribution to maintain national security.

To excel in population work in the new era, we must adhere to the Party's comprehensive leadership. Establish and improve leadership and coordination mechanisms for promoting high-quality population development. Ensure that primary leaders of local Party committees and governments personally oversee and take full responsibility, incorporating the implementation of population policies into relevant assessments. Strengthen population statistics and dynamic monitoring and early warning systems, improve the legal framework for population and fertility security, and build a theoretical population system with Chinese characteristics. Enhance publicity and guidance to foster a positive atmosphere.