Very valuable review. Dario is smaller than we hoped indeed (in my view). One can tell when the technology edge is not enough, and tricks like the last article he wrote are what you have left to play with.
While China obviously can't be stopped in the long term, I think the emphasis of everyone in the West thinking along the lines of Aschenbrenner is that the West must be first to AGI/ASI, and there might be lasting advantages to being first. I do think (p>.9) given the compute promised by Gigawatt-class Blackwell datacenters, the West will be first. Given the paradigm shift AGI represents, what they hope is a few year gap between China and the West may either prove to be insurmountable, or result in continued Western dominance. On this part I am less sure. It's hard to understand what a post-AGI world would be like and what sort of changes we might see in the timespan it takes for China to catch up (probably up to 3 years, depending on when and how AGI is achieved)
Very valuable review. Dario is smaller than we hoped indeed (in my view). One can tell when the technology edge is not enough, and tricks like the last article he wrote are what you have left to play with.
Informative read, inspiring as well. I am curious to read more on AI, China, and why this matters to the everyday person.
While China obviously can't be stopped in the long term, I think the emphasis of everyone in the West thinking along the lines of Aschenbrenner is that the West must be first to AGI/ASI, and there might be lasting advantages to being first. I do think (p>.9) given the compute promised by Gigawatt-class Blackwell datacenters, the West will be first. Given the paradigm shift AGI represents, what they hope is a few year gap between China and the West may either prove to be insurmountable, or result in continued Western dominance. On this part I am less sure. It's hard to understand what a post-AGI world would be like and what sort of changes we might see in the timespan it takes for China to catch up (probably up to 3 years, depending on when and how AGI is achieved)
Wonderful reasoning from the Chinese specialists. Thanks for sharing.
Most welcome. My great pleasure!
lol you’re so fast to translating the stuff I wanna translate!
Haha, sorry for that. I would rather leave it to you to translate as it could make the article more visible!